China stumbles again

China's HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in July form the previous reading of 48.2 last month. The Analysts had expected the index to rise to 48.6. 

Copper at the MCX closed at Rs. 419.65 from its previous closing price of Rs. 421.85, after opening at Rs 421.25. It registered a high of 423.35 and a low of 417.40 during the day.

Euro zones PMI rose more than expected last month, the PMI rose to 50.1 from 48.8 in the last month. The expectation was that the index would rise to 49.1. 

Copper Rises post US data

Copper prices rose after positive US industrial production data. The US industrial production data rose by 0.5% in June as against the expectations of a 0.3% increase, after its 0.1% increase in May. 

The consumer prices Y-O-Y rose by 1.8% up from the 1.4% increase in May, the expectation was of a 1.7% gain in the prices. The dollar index which is the relative index of the greenback against six major currencies fell by 0.62% to 82.53.

COMEX Copper rose to 317.8 USD/lb for its September 13 contract. 

VIEW ON COPPER

It appears to keep on trading between 426  to 405.Any beakout above 430 could take its price to the level of 455.And any breakout below 405 could take copper to level of 388.The swing is happening because of the data from CHINA & USA.However if the rupee starts appreciating this will also cause copper to come down.

Commodities stumble on weak China GDP data

China's GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2013 stumbled the prices of the commodities and stocks worldwide. The reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics stated the growth in the GDP of China for Q1 2013 to be at 7.7 percent from the previous year. The economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than the growth rate of 7. 9% witnessed in the last quarter of the previous year. The expected GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 8 percent. 

In a separate report, contrary to the expectations of a 10% growth in the Industrial output,  the Industrial Output growth of China for the month of March stood at 8.9 percent on the previous year. Industrial output for the month of February was 9.9%.  Further underpinning the growth recovery in China, the World Bank downgraded the growth forecast of China by 0.1 percent to 8.3%. China stands out to be the largest consumer of Copper in the world.

At the MCX Copper prices for its April end Contract contracted by 2.03% from its previous closing price of 404.5, the metal closed at 396.1 after registering a high of 402.65 and a low of 386.50; this was also the  all time low for the contract. On the COMEX the metal traded 0.29% higher at 327.30 USD/lb for its May,13 contract.

Meanwhile Crude Oil touched its lowest level so far this year on the wake of concerns over its second largest consumer. WTI for May delivery decreased by 2.8 percent to close at $88.71 at the NYMEX, the lowest since Dec, 24. At the MCX Crude prices were down by 2.57 percent at 4847, it made an intra-day high of 4956 and a low of 4792. 

Demand for Crude Oil in China seems bleak. China's demand for crude oil for the month of March grew by 2.7 percent y-o-y to 9.77 million barrels a day, however the demand was weaker than 10.2 million barrels a day experienced in the month of February. Demand in the month of March was indeed at its lowest level since last October.

Commodities falter as US Retail Sales decline...

Against the market expectation of a 0.1% fall, the US retail sales for the month of March declined by 0.4%; its highest in the last nine months. 

The US retail and food services for the month of March stood at $418.3 billion, a drop of 0.4 percent from February, but was 2.8 percent higher from March 2012. Retail sales for the months January and February, 2013 were revised to 1.0% from 1.1% while the auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up by 7.4% year-on-year.

In a separate report compiled by Thomson Reuters/ University of Michigan the preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined from 78.6 in March to 72.3 in the April. The decline in the consumer sentiment index refers to a decline in the consumer spending. 

On the MCX Copper for its April end contract closed at Rs. 404.65, down by 1.76 percent form its previous closing price of Rs. 411.90. The red metal made a high of Rs.413.90 and a low of Rs.402.85, while its open interest stood at 30905 lots.

COMEX Copper was down by 2.43% at 335 USD/lb for its May 13 contract. At the LME warehouse stock for Copper increased by 3475 tons to 593650 tons.

View on Natural Gas:

Natural Gas has been hovering in  the trading range of  $4.004 to $4.181, in INR the range has been 222-229 and is expected to be within the same range for at least one more week. Any break out above 229 might drag the price up to Rs 234- 239 any break put below Rs 220 might drag the price of Natural Gas below 212 and 202.

View for Today's Trade:  Buy N.Gas around 227 with a strict stop loss below 225.50 with a target 229.5 and 230.

CHILE MINING HALTED

Copper goes as Chile goes. Chile being the largest producer of Copper in the world is its primary driver of  prices globally. Employees of Anglo American Plc, BHP Billiton Ltd and stated owned Codelco are on strike for the next 24 hours.

Having faced no trouble in the past year over copper production, the Copper mine workers are vouching for a greater job security and until then they have vowed to halt any mining activity in Chile. The strike become more conspicuous after the workers of the world's largest copper producing company- Codelco asseverated their demands.

Prices of Copper on the MCX for its April end contract surged higher by 0.57% on the 8th of April. Copper made a high of 410.15 with an open interest of 32493 lots.